A Wall Street analyst predicts SpaceX shares will fall to $75.

  • Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum predicts SpaceX shares will fall to $75 in the next 12 months.
  • In his opinion, the company does not have long-term contracts that could support the price over a longer period of time.

After reviewing Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s impressive second-quarter earnings report , Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum warned investors of a potential share price drop to a new all-time low within the next 12 months.

He reiterated a Sell rating on SpaceX shares and maintained his 12-month price target of $75, implying a potential downside of 46,6% (SPCX currently trades at $140,50).

The pessimistic outlook is based on the company's significant capital expenditures, customer focus on artificial intelligence (AI) services, and temporary cloud service contracts. Longer-term commitments may be required to maintain SpaceX's rating.

SpaceX's total revenue for the second quarter of 2026 increased 92% year-over-year to $7,8 billion. Revenue from communications services increased 66% to $4,3 billion, driven by a doubling of Starlink subscribers to 12 million and strong demand from enterprises and government agencies, which increased operating profit in this category by 79%. The company's total AI revenue increased 247% to $2,6 billion, primarily due to new cloud services and infrastructure agreements.

Phillip Securities' stance differs from most Wall Street analysts', as they forecast bullish growth. Specifically, 31 analysts surveyed by TipRanks set the average 12-month price target at $232,35, implying a potential upside of 64%.

The highest SPCX price forecast is $800, while the lowest is $75.

Meanwhile, after the release of its debut financial results, SPCX shares rebounded more than 17% and hit their first major resistance level near $149. As a result, SpaceX's share price has fallen more than 4% in the past 24 hours, reducing the company's market capitalization to $1,9 trillion.

Opera Snapshot_2026-08-18_192221_finance.yahoo.com

Yahoo.finance data

Therefore, if SpaceX announces additional long-term contracts with its AI and Starlink subscribers, the optimistic forecast of all Wall Street analysts could come true. However, if the company fails to secure additional long-term contracts with its AI and Starlink subscribers, the recent rally could prove to be a temporary bounce.

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