- Researchers identified 556 accounts on polymarket, whose bets may have been based on insider information.
Public ledgers of prediction markets can turn insider trading into a signal that can be copied by other traders and bots, according to new research into activity on the Polymarket International platform.
The non-profit Anti-Corruption Data Collective reported that more than 150 wallets on the platform may have traded insider information about the US military.
Experts analyzed all Polymarket settled markets as of May 5 and identified "risky" bets. These were defined as bets of at least $2500 placed within an hour on outcomes with a probability of 35% or lower.
ACDC data
They identified 556 wallets, dubbed "killer whales." These traders frequently opened accounts, quickly made successful, risky bets in niche markets where insiders may have an information advantage, and then withdrew their funds and disappeared.
Of these wallets, 152 were particularly successful in the military and defense markets. According to the study, they earned a total of $8 million and had an average win rate of 97,2%.
Interestingly, US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was indicted in April for allegedly trading classified information on Polymarket , grew his position more slowly and was not among the 152 accounts mentioned.
The Polymarket and Kalshi teams are working to prevent abuse, with Kalshi planning to collect information on the activities of traders seeking access to certain contracts that may be associated with insider trading or manipulation.
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