Forecast from Happy Coin News: What will happen to gold, silver and platinum in 2026?

Due to the powerful upheavals in the precious metals market, the editorial board Happy Coin News decided to answer the question of what will happen to gold, silver and platinum in 2026.

What should investors expect from the gold price?

In early 2026, gold prices soared 30% in less than a month during a lightning-fast bull run by XAU standards. However, the market inevitably found itself overbought, with the RSI surpassing 87 at the precious metal's peak of $5,600. An unprecedented sell-off followed, with gold falling 21,5% to $4,402 in four days. This caused the RSI to plummet to 24, and under the influence of oversold conditions, the XAU quickly corrected to $4,900.

Changes in gold price and RSI index

The upward trend that emerged in the XAU market in 2022 was driven by three main factors:

1. Rising inflation rates in many countries;
2. Weakening of the dollar;
3. Increased geopolitical tensions.

In late January, the dollar index , which measures the dollar's value against six major fiat currencies, began to rise amid expectations for US economic growth, fueled in part by the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman. Many believe he will ease monetary policy in the US. If this positive trend continues, the weakening dollar will no longer affect the gold price.

Dollar index fluctuations since the beginning of 2026

However, geopolitical tensions and high inflation remain. In particular, the international situation is complicated by the ongoing military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the dispute between the US and the EU over Greenland, and the threat of an American air strike on Iran.

According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast , global inflation in 2026 will decline by 11,9% compared to 2025, reaching 3,7%. However, in some large economies, national currencies will depreciate much faster than average. For example, in Argentina, inflation is expected to reach 16,4%, in Turkey – 24,7%, and in Russia – 5,2%.

Inflation forecast for 2026

Given the decline in global inflation and the likely strengthening of the dollar, I believe that the upward movement in the gold market will slow down in 2026, and by the end of the year the price of the precious metal will not increase as much as in 2025, when its price increased by 64,7%.

XAU is likely to once again exceed the World Gold Council's expectations, which predicted a price increase of $5,300 at best, and reach $6,000. In this case, gold would rise by 39%. This would be an impressive result, given that the precious metal has gained an average of 8% per year since 1971.

How will the price of silver change?

Unlike gold, which is invested in by governments of virtually all countries, silver is not in demand by central banks. It is known that from 2024 to 2025, the central banks of only three countries invested in XAG : Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia. The Russian government purchased no more than $535,5 million worth of the precious metal, the Saudis invested $40 million in ETFs based on the precious metal, and the amount of silver purchased by the Indians is unknown. Meanwhile, in 2025, the Central Bank and other institutions purchased 863.3 tonnes of gold worth $140,7 billion at the current exchange rate.

Given central bank policies, it's clear that silver lacks the strong support that XAU can rely on. Therefore, its price is subject to greater fluctuations caused by speculative trading. Consequently, from January 29 to February 2, XAG fell much more significantly than gold, plummeting 41,4% from $121,7 to $71,4. However, as with XAU, XAG corrected and consolidated above the 800-hour exponential moving average, which currently stands at $86,4. Given this, Savelyev has no doubt that silver will reach $100 in the medium term.

Possible increase in the price of XAG

Speaking about silver's outlook, seasoned trader Peter Brandt stated that XAG should rise to $600 in the distant future. Remarkably, Peter almost predicted the bottom of the precious metal market, predicting it would fall to $60. Therefore, his opinion on the asset is worth considering.

Naturally, the silver price has no chance of reaching $600 in 2026. However, the bullish scenario, which remains in effect, predicts XAG's price will rise to $135 by the end of the year. Consequently, the asset could gain another 51,7% in value by the end of 2026. This scenario is considered quite realistic, as XAG's price increased by 148% in 2025, and the slowdown in price growth is in line with the trend likely to be observed in the gold market.

Changes in the silver price at the end of the year

How much will platinum cost in 2026?

Platinum didn't escape the fate of other precious metals and fell victim to the bearish trend that began on January 26 after its price reached an all-time high of $2,885. Over the course of the week, XPT's price plunged 35,7%, then corrected to the 800-hour exponential moving average (EMA) before bouncing off it and falling again. Therefore, in the medium term, the asset's price is likely to fluctuate below the resistance barrier at $2,250.

Possible change in the price of platinum

Edward Sterk, head of research at the World Platinum Investment Council, an organization focused on platinum investments, believes that 2026, like last year, will see a shortage of XPT. He estimates the shortage will reach 400,000 ounces, representing 5,6% of platinum production in 2025. According to Sterk, the shortage will only be avoided if capital flows out of XPT-based ETFs and futures trading volumes decline.

Conversely, the Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT) and GraniteShares Platinum Trust (PLTM) are seeing an influx of funds. However, trading volume and open interest in the XPT futures market on the CME Group platform have declined since their January peaks. If this negative trend continues, supply and demand will balance. Without a shortage, the platinum price will not be able to appreciate rapidly.

Fluctuations in the amount of completed transactions and the volume of open positions in the platinum futures market

Given the stalled bull run and the cooling market, I believe the optimistic scenario of platinum rising to $3,500 by the end of 2026 is unrealistic. However, as an analyst Happy Coin NewsI'm betting on a moderate increase in the precious metal's price by the end of the year. XPT certainly has the potential to rise to $2,500, a 23,5% increase over its current value. Accordingly, investing in platinum will allow you to increase your capital by almost a quarter.